Orbit is the New Frontier and it Needs a Weather Prediction System
Written by Sarah Willson and Padmashri Suresh
Published May 26, 2025
As of May 2025, 12,350 satellites are orbiting the Earth. This number continues to grow by approximately 50 satellites every week. Increased space activity in the commercial sector has been predominantly driven by SpaceX, which independently increased the United States’ share of global launches from 18% in 2018 to 45% in 2023. SpaceX is not without competition though, as emerging satellite launch companies like RocketLab, Blue Origin, ULA, Arianespace, and more compete for market share.
Despite an increase in space activity, we remain dangerously underprepared for space weather events that not only impact space-based operations but also critical systems on Earth. Space weather volatility can disrupt essential services we rely on daily, including but not limited to GPS systems, airline routing, telecommunications, search and rescue, credit card and ATM transactions, and more.
Image 1. The sizes of the Earth and the Sun are shown to scale, but not the distance between them. In the image, the Earth is dwarfed by an explosion on the Sun that is ejecting large amounts of hot gas into space. [Source]
Space weather refers to the conditions in space caused by activity on the sun. This includes solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and fast streams of solar wind from coronal holes. These events can disturb Earth’s space environment, triggering geomagnetic storms that disrupt satellites, GPS, and communication systems we rely on every day. These storms ripple through our planet’s magnetic field and in turn, can generate electric currents in the ground, known as geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which can damage power grids, pipelines, and other critical infrastructure.
Space weather has become increasingly volatile in recent years. This is because the sun has entered its peak activity period, known as its solar maximum. The sun operates on an (approximate) 11 year cycle, with periods of both high solar and low solar activity (solar maximum and minimum). During solar maximums, the sun is more likely to emit solar flares, CME’s, and coronal holes.
The most extreme geomagnetic storm ever recorded is known as the Carrington Event, which occurred in September of 1859. The storm was prompted by a massive CME, which resulted in wildfires and widespread disruption to telegraph systems. Though society was significantly less dependent on electricity at the time, the storm's effects were still shocking and would be catastrophic today. If a similar storm were to occur today, the consequences would be far more severe. A storm of that magnitude could induce damaging currents in modern power grids, causing blackouts that last for weeks or even months. It could also disable satellite communications, disrupting everything from aviation and GPS navigation to digital banking and global internet infrastructure
Today we rely solely on government agencies to predict when these phenomena are likely to occur. However, these predictions are not always accurate and reliable. Even for companies like SpaceX, the lack of space weather data is a problem. On February 3rd 2022, SpaceX launched 49 satellites into a minor geomagnetic storm, 38 of which deorbited and burned up in the Earth’s atmosphere. A recent space weather preparedness report by the NSTC and SWORM also revealed significant gaps in the U.S.’s preparedness for solar weather. The report cites limited space weather monitoring capabilities as a key factor, suggesting that the US is not ready for a significant solar storm.
Perceptive Space is bridging the space weather knowledge gap with its AI-powered space weather forecasting predictions. Perceptive’s system leverages the latest advancements in AI and sensor fusion to produce accurate, timely, and reliable space weather predictions which outperform traditional models by 10x. The Perceptive Space team comprises seasoned space weather scientists, ML scientists and aerospace engineers with research backgrounds from NASA, Los Alamos National Lab, MIT, and the University of Waterloo.
Today, Perceptive Space is deep in R&D, building AI products that support humanity’s space endeavors, from Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) to the moon, Mars, and beyond. Perceptive Space will release its space weather forecast for LEO missions in 2025. With these products, companies like SpaceX will have better intel into when they should and should not launch their satellites, given geomagnetic storm risks.
With increasing space activity and a growing reliance on space-dependent systems here on Earth, preparing for space weather events has become critical. Advanced space weather intelligence isn't just essential for ensuring seamless operation of GPS, telecommunications, and financial systems-it's also fundamental to emerging space ventures like space habitats and interplanetary travel.
Image 2. The Stanford Torus is a proposed, large-scale space habitat concept in the shape of a rotating ring (torus) designed to simulate Earth-like gravity. [Source]
Consider Stanford University's proposed Stanford Torus design for a space colony - a rotating habitat that could house up to 10,000 people. These ambitious projects may not be as far-fetched as they seem, but without accurate space weather forecasting, they would remain prohibitively dangerous to pursue.
As NASA aptly describes it: "The Sun is not a placid ball of fire but a seething, roiling, magnetic storm machine." This reality underscores why improved space weather forecasting is essential for businesses across aviation, defense, transportation, and financial services to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of solar phenomena on their daily operations.
Ultimately, enhanced space weather predictability will enable humanity to continue pushing the boundaries of space operations and exploration safely. As we stand on the brink of becoming a truly spacefaring civilization, understanding and forecasting space weather isn't just an advantage-it's an absolute necessity.
“The Sun is not a placid ball of fire but a seething, roiling, magnetic storm machine.”
